By Pelle Neroth Taylor

World War I has often been described as the worst disaster of modern European history. Its destruction extended far beyond the battlefield: millions of potential great lives, ideas, works of art, and moral traditions were extinguished in the mud of the Somme and Passchendaele. The war shattered the optimism and confidence of Western civilisation, marking a decisive break with the nineteenth century world. While later atrocities such as Auschwitz dominate historical memory, the First World War deserves equal attention, for it created the conditions that made such horrors possible.

Unlike the Second World War, World War I was not a clear struggle between good and evil. It was largely a war of choice, driven by rivalries among Europe’s great powers rather than unavoidable necessity. Central to its origins was Britain’s fear of Germany’s rapid economic and industrial rise. Germany’s success in engineering, education, and manufacturing threatened Britain’s long-standing dominance of global markets. Moral rhetoric about German aggression- ‘the German bully’-often masked a deeper anxiety: a mature imperial power seeking to contain a rising competitor. This dynamic resembles what historians now call the “Thucydides Trap,” where established powers attempt to suppress challengers before they grow too strong.

In the years before 1914, Britain pursued a policy of diplomatic isolation against Germany, forging alliances with France and Russia and surrounding Germany with hostile powers. Germany, lacking a comparable empire and encircled on land and sea, increasingly felt threatened. France, motivated by the desire to recover Alsace-Lorraine, and Russia, seeking influence in the Balkans, shared Britain’s interest in containing Germany. Austria-Hungary, Germany’s only major ally, was marginalised and treated with hostility.

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo provided the spark, but the underlying tensions had long prepared the ground for war. Austria’s declaration of war on Serbia triggered alliance commitments, drawing Germany, France, and Russia into a wider conflict. Germany’s movement through Belgium, militarily motivated, was portrayed as proof of uniquely German aggression, helping to solidify British public support for war.

Once fighting began, opportunities for negotiated peace were repeatedly rejected. Germany sought early settlement, but Allied leaders increasingly framed the conflict in moral absolutes, portraying Germany as a force that must be destroyed rather than accommodated. The prolongation of the war, and eventually the entry of the United States, ensured total victory for the Allies—but at catastrophic cost. Had peace been achieved in 1916, Europe might have avoided revolution, fascism, and another world war. Responsibility for this tragedy, long placed almost exclusively on Germany, must be more evenly shared—especially by the British Empire, whose role has too often escaped serious scrutiny.

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At the centre of the war’s outbreak lies the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand—an event often portrayed as spontaneous, but which some historians, including myself, argue was the result of a broader and more deliberate plot.

In this interpretation, the Sarajevo assassination was not merely the act of radicalised youths reacting to imperial oppression. Rather, it emerged from a web of intelligence links connecting Serbian military intelligence with wider Russian and, indirectly, French strategic interests. The assassins were supported by members of the Serbian Black Hand, an organisation with close ties to elements within the Serbian state and military. Russia, as Serbia’s patron and protector, had strong incentives to destabilise Austria-Hungary and expand its influence in the Balkans. France, locked into alliance with Russia and seeking to recover Alsace-Lorraine from Germany, benefited strategically from a Balkan crisis that could trigger a wider European war. The Russian military attache was in daily contact with the Serbian black hand, and some historical research gives support to othe idea of Russian planning and support, or at least prior approval, of the plot.

According to this view, the assassination was intended as a spark rather than a cause in itself. Austria-Hungary’s predictable reaction would activate Germany’s security guarantee, allowing France and Russia to mobilise offensively against Germany under the cover of alliance obligations. War plans on all sides were already in place, and the crisis offered an opportunity to implement them. While direct evidence of French intelligence involvement remains disputed, the alignment of interests and preparatory military postures suggest that key powers were prepared for escalation rather than restraint.

Germany’s subsequent actions, particularly its advance through Belgium, have traditionally been framed as proof of aggressive intent. Yet from this perspective, Germany was responding to encirclement and the imminent threat of a two-front war. Britain’s ambiguous diplomatic signals before August 1914 further contributed to the breakdown, leaving Germany uncertain whether restraint would be rewarded or punished. Once war began, Allied propaganda rapidly transformed the conflict into a moral crusade, foreclosing early possibilities for negotiation.

The consequences of this failure were immense. A war that might have ended quickly became a prolonged struggle of annihilation, paving the way for revolution, totalitarianism, and a second global conflict. If a negotiated peace had been achieved in 1916, Europe might have avoided the Bolshevik Revolution and the rise of Hitler. Re-examining the origins of the war—especially the assassination at Sarajevo and the role of Russian and French strategic calculations—challenges the traditional narrative of sole German culpability and demands a broader assignment of responsibility for the catastrophe of 1914.

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A crucial but often overlooked episode in the later stages of World War I was the series of German peace feelers directed toward the United States, particularly in 1916. As my book Hands off our War emphasizes, these initiatives reflected a genuine German desire to end the war while they still held a strong military position. Germany sought a negotiated peace “without victors,” one that would stabilise Europe and avoid total collapse. President Woodrow Wilson was uniquely positioned to broker such a settlement, as the United States possessed decisive financial and material leverage over Britain and France, both of whom depended heavily on American loans and supplies.

According to this interpretation, these peace efforts were deliberately undermined by the British government, particularly by Prime Minister David Lloyd George. Rather than supporting negotiation, Lloyd George pursued a strategy of escalation, believing that total victory was achievable—especially if the United States could be drawn fully into the war. British intelligence had broken German codes and understood that continued provocation would strengthen hardliners within the German leadership, particularly those advocating unrestricted submarine warfare. This policy worked precisely as intended: German moderates were discredited, militarists gained influence, and the resumption of submarine warfare brought the United States into the conflict. In this sense, British belligerence did not merely prolong the war; it actively shaped German internal politics by empowering the most extreme voices in Berlin.

The consequences were catastrophic. Once American manpower and resources entered the war, compromise became impossible. A conflict that might have ended in 1916 instead continued until exhaustion, revolution, and total defeat reshaped Europe. The resulting peace settlement, imposed rather than negotiated, laid the foundations for future instability and extremism. The original text argues that this moment represents one of the great missed opportunities of modern history.

In my book, I draw explicit parallels with the present day, suggesting that similar dynamics are visible in the war in Ukraine. As in 1916, there are efforts—particularly associated with the United States—to explore negotiated outcomes, while British and French policy remains oriented toward prolongation and maximalist objectives. Just as Lloyd George’s intransigence strengthened hardliners in Berlin, continued escalation today risks entrenching extreme positions and foreclosing diplomatic solutions.

In this eye-opening talk, Pelle Neroth Taylor, author of The War Guilt Question and Hands of Our War, challenges the conventional narrative of sole German responsibility. Topics include the road to war; Britain’s humiliation in the Boer War and the compensations it sought in Europe; the Entente Cordiale and the carve-up of North Africa without German inclusion; years of tabloid-driven propaganda and strategic encirclement; the reality behind the Sarajevo plot; and the pivotal missed opportunity of 1916, when Germany made genuine peace overtures to President Woodrow Wilson—overtures deliberately undermined by the British Empire’s hard-line stance.

Pelle Neroth Taylor is a filmmaker, author, historian and geopolitical commentator who has authored The War Guilt Question and Hands off Our War. He is Co-host of the Pelle Taylor and Martin Sieff Geopolitical Podcast available here